Quantitative Techniques | Definition, Application, Importance & Limitations

QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES


WHAT IS QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES ?


Decision Science is the application that uses scientific approach and solves the management problems. It also helps managers to make best decisions. Decision science includes a large number of mathematically oriented techniques. These techniques can be either developed within field of decision science or taken from other disciplines. Decision science is a recognized and established discipline in business. Decision science is a technique which is mainly used within business for increasing their efficiency and productivity.

In various surveys of businesses, many indicate that they use decision science techniques, and most rate the results to be very good.
Decision science is also known as operations research, quantitative techniques, quantitative analysis and management sciences. It is largely used in daily routine of most programs of business organization.

Contents :

  1. Meaning & Definition of Quantitative Techniques.
  2. Role of Quantitative Techniques in Decision Making.
  3. Characteristics of Quantitative Techniques.
  4. Scope of Quantitative Techniques.
  5. Nature of Quantitative Techniques.
  6. Importance of Decision Science / Quantitative Techniques.
  7. Limitations of Quantitative Techniques in Business Decision Making.
  8. Applications of Quantitative Techniques.


Meaning and Definition of Quantitative Techniques :


The term Decision Science / Quantitative Techniques (QT) /Operations Research (OR) describes the discipline that is focused on the application of Information Technology (IT) for well-versed decision-making.

Quantitative techniques are those statistical and programming techniques: which support the decision making process especially related to industry and business. QT takes into consideration the elements of qualities such as use of numbers, symbols and other mathematical expressions. QT is basically helpful enhancement to judgment and intuition. Quantitative techniques assess planning factors and alternatives as and when they arise rather than suggest courses of action.

Quantitative, techniques may be defined as those techniques which provide the decision maker with a systematic and powerful means of analysis and help, based on quantifiable data, in exploring policies for achieving pre-determined goals. ”Quantitative techniques are mainly appropriate to problems of complex business enterprises”.

QT can be considered as the scientific approach to managerial decision making. This approach starts from raw data and after manipulation or processing, information is produced which is valuable for making decision.
The main aim of quantitative analysis is the processing and manipulating of raw data into meaningful information. For increasing the use of quantitative analysis, computer can be used as an instrument.

According to C.R. Kothari :
“Quantitative Techniques may be defined as those technique which provide the decision maker with a systematic and powerful means of analysis and help, based on quantitative in exploring policies for achieving per-determined goals”.
Quantitative Techniques are the devices developed on the basis of mathematical and statistical models.

Role of Quantitative Techniques in Decision Making :

The major roles of quantitative technique are as follows :
  1. It provides a tool for scientific analysis.
  2. It offers solutions for various business problems.
  3. It enables proper deployment of resources.
  4. It supports in minimizing waiting and servicing costs.
  5. It helps the management to decide when to buy and what is the procedure of buying.
  6. It helps in reducing the total processing time necessary for performing a set of jobs.


Characteristics of Quantitative Techniques :



1) Decision-Making : 
Decision-making or problem solving constitutes the major working of operations research: Managerial decision-making is considered to be a general systematic process of operations research (OR).

2) Scientific Approach : 
Like any other research,  operations research also emphasizes on the overall approach and takes into account all the significant effects of the system. It understands and evaluates them as a whole. It takes a scientific approach towards reasoning. It involves the methods defining the problem, its formulation, testing and analyzing of the results obtained.

3) Objective-Oriented Approach :
Operations Research not only takes the overall view of the problem, but also endeavor’s to arrive at the best possible (say optimal) solution to the problem in hand. It takes an objective-oriented approach. To achieve this, it is necessary to have a defined measure of effectiveness which is based on the goals of the organization. This measure is then used to make a comparison between alternative solutions to the problem and adopt the best one.

4) Inter-Disciplinary Approach : 
No approach can be effective, if taken singly. OR is also inter-disciplinary in nature. Problems are multi-dimensional and approach needs a team work. For example, managerial problems are affected by economic, sociological, biological, psychological, physical and engineering aspect. A team that plans to arrive at a solution, to such a problem, needs people who are specialists in areas such as mathematics, engineering, economics, statistics, management, etc.

Probability – Rules, Types, Application, Uses, Characteristics

Probability


What is Probability ?


Computation of the chance of an occurrence of a certain event is called probability. Hence, probability is the study of random happening of an event and uncertainty, e.g. “Probability of rain tomorrow is only 35%”, and “Probability of winning a lottery is 1 out of 40,406,353”.
Before conducting an experiment, the absolute certainty of the outcome is unpredictable, therefore it is termed as probability, which actually depends on the idea of a random experiment’.
The theory of probability originates from the ‘game of chance’ associated with gambling, e.g., consider a game like gambling, tossing of a coin, throwing of a die, and random drawing of cards from a pack of cards. Thus, in statistics, probability (of an event) is defined as the ‘proportion of time’ in which an event occurs and is observed, even if the experiment is run an infinite number of times.

Contents :  

  1. Meaning and Definition of Probability.
  2. General Rule for Probability.
  3. Application of Probability.
  4. Characteristics of Probability Function P(A).
  5. Uses of Probability in Decision Making.
  6. Types of Probability : Objective Probability & Subjective Probability Theory.


Meaning and Definition of Probability :


Probability is the mode of expression of knowledge or belief whether the event has occured or will occur. Thus, in the theory of probability this concept has been given an exact mathematical significance for being used widely in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy, so that conclusions can be drawn regarding the probability of potential events and the mechanics of complex systems being hidden.

According to Levin :
“We live in a world in which we are unable to forecast the future with complete certainty. Our need to cope with uncertainty leads us to the study and use of probability theory“.

According to American Heritage Dictionary :
“Probability is the branch of mathematics that studies the likelihood of occurrence of random events in order to predict the behavior of a defined system”.

General Rule for Probability :


The probability of an event (say A) is defined as follows :

If an event happens m times and it fails n times, then the probability (p) of event A is defined as :
              m
P(A) = ——–
            m+n

        The number of cases favorable to
         the occurence of the event
P(A) = ————————————————
        Total number of mutually exclusive
         and exhaustive cases

So the total number of trials favorable to the event (A) divided by the total number of ways in which the event (A) can happen.

         The number of cases favorable to 
           the occurence of the event
P(A) = ————————————————-
       Total number of mutually exclusive
         and exhaustive cases

Probability in favor of the occurrence of the event :

        The number of cases favorable to
m      the occurence of the event
— = —————————————————
n     The number of cases against
         the occurrence of the event

Probability against the occurrence of the event :
        The number of cases against 
n      the occurence of the event
— = ————————————————
m     The number of cases favorable to
         the occurrence of the event

Applications of Probability :


  1. It plays a great role in making predictions.
  2. It is used to solve scientific investigations as well as day-to-day problems.
  3. It is very useful when one wants to predict the uncertainties of betting.and chances of success.
  4. It is extensively used in business and economics.
  5. It is the basis of the law of statistical regularity and law of inertia of a large number.


Characteristics of Probability Function P(A) :


  1. The limit of probability of an event A is between 0 and 1, i.e. 0<P(A)<1.
  2. When probability of two events A and B which are mutually exclusive, is combined, the probability is the sum of individual probabilities of A and B, i.e., P(AOB) will be P (A) + P (B).
  3. Two events which are equivalent are assigned the same probability.

Uses of Probability in Decision-Making :


Following are the business situations where managers use probability to take a decision :

1) Investment Problem : 
A company’s manager has two different projects (with different initial costs) for investment. The decision taken by the manager is based on the choice that the outcome of which is dependent on the level of demand.

2) Introducing a New Product : 
While introducing a new product there arises a problem in deciding about the introduction of the product. The decision maker is not sure whether the product would be acceptable or not. Hence after conducting test, marketing in three different regions the results being contradictory, the idea of introducing a new product should be dropped ? Thus, it is necessary to answer this question : what would be the chances of success of introducing a new product ?.

3) Stocking Decisions :
The demand of a perishable commodity is unknown to its dealer in advance. Thus if the commodity is not sold by the end of the day it will be spoiled. Therefore, he is not sure about the demand pattern and stock amount (that how much commodity is to be stored in advance).

4) The Individual Investor : 
Maximisatiorn of returns is the motive of investors who are engaged in buying and selling of equities. The behavior of equities/ security prices is uncertain and it depends upon various factors. In this situation, managers take decisions on the basis of their prediction about future prices of the securities. This prediction helps the investor to take a decision as to which.securities he/she should select for the investment.

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